The whole world is watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s combat power, in terms of military technology and warfighting functions (command and control, fires, force protection, information, intelligence, logistics, and maneuver) is its greatest strength against Ukraine. If one would have looked at the metrics of Russia’s military before the invasion, one would have predicted that the Russian Ground Forces (RGF) would be in Kyiv with a puppet regime established within two weeks. Any good military historian would tell you that metrics alone don’t win wars.
The invasion has now dragged on for over four weeks with Russia only gaining limited ground in terms of terrain and losing ground in terms of international politics. How are the Ukrainian people continuing to hold onto their homeland? The media has focused on the international support that Ukraine has received and the economic sanctions many western countries have imposed on Russian industries. While these are important topics, Ukraine’s will to fight is often overlooked. A deeper look at Ukraine’s history, its current national leadership, and urban tactics are necessary to understand Ukraine’s will to fight.
History of Ukraine
Ukraine has a long history of tension and conflict with it its neighbor to the east. Ever since the time of Katherine the Great, the Russian nobility viewed Ukraine as a dominion state. Given Ukraine’s fertile farmlands, rich natural resources, and access to strategic points on the Black Sea, it was easy for Russia to exploit Ukraine for its own economic and political gain. During World War II (WWII), the exploiters of Ukraine changed from the Russians to the Nazis. The occupying Nazi governor exploited Ukraine’s commodities such as lumber and grain for his own use and rounded up the Ukrainian Jews to be killed by Nazi firing squads.
After the fall of the Nazis, Ukraine’s exploiter changed back to Soviet Russia. Stalin’s economic policies of collectivization took an even harder toll on Ukraine than the Nazi’s policies. The food produced in the Gulags (forced labor camps and collective farms) was shipped to Russian cities to feed the factory workers with little produce left over for Ukrainian farmers to feed themselves and their families. This policy led to mass starvation in Ukraine. After many years under Soviet control, Ukraine finally gained its independence from the USSR with the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Like many former Soviet states, Ukraine struggled with government corruption and Russian influence after gaining its independence. Former Ukrainian President (2010-2014), Viktor Yanukovych, was a Russian puppet that dismantled the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This allowed the RGF to invade Crimea through an airborne invasion without any resistance in 2014. Soon after Russian-backed rebel groups in the Donbas Region (the eastern part of Ukraine) began an uprising against the Ukrainian government with the backing of the Putin Regime. After the invasion, protests erupted in Kyiv. Yanukovych fled to Russia, and Ukraine held an open election to elect a new president. Relations between the Putin Regime and the Ukrainian National Government have been tense ever since the initial invasion of Crimea.
Ukraine has understandably had enough of the Russian aristocrats meddling in their affairs for the last couple hundred years. They want to be an independent, sovereign nation apart from Russia. It is said that Putin is invading Ukraine to reunite the USSR. Putin knows he will never be able to reunite the USSR. His only interest is to exploit Ukraine’s natural resources and to subjugate the Ukrainian people under his rule for his own personal gain. Ukraine must fight and win this war for the sake of democracy and freedom.
National Leadership
President Volodymyr Zelensky has captivated the world with his Churchillian one-liners. In response to the United States’ offer to help him flee the country, Zelensky said “I don’t need a ride. I need ammunition.” As the RGF has been shelling Kyiv these past couple of weeks, Zelensky retorted, “I’m staying in Kyiv. In my office. I’m not hiding. And I’m not afraid of anyone.” Although the short clips on Twitter are not the same as the bold speeches given by FDR and Churchill throughout WWII, the same inspiration and call to duty can be heard in his voice.
When Zelensky was elected President in 2019, many thought he was too soft to stand up to Vladamir Putin. He had little experience in politics with a career in entertainment before jumping into the presidential race. President Zelensky has shown us once again that there is a difference between being a good politician and being a good leader. Although he might not have the same political savvy as his predecessor, the Ukrainian people have shown that they are willing to follow him to hell and back. That’s what makes a good leader. The ability to influence people to keep fighting the good fight even when they are in their darkest moments.
Urban Tactics
If the RGF is to prevail in Ukraine, it must take Ukraine’s center of gravity (COG). According to Joint Publication 5-0, a COG is “the source of power or strength that enables a military force to achieve its objective and is what an opposing force can orient its actions against that will lead to enemy failure.” Ukraine’s political power is derived from its national government in Kyiv. If the RGF wants to gain control of power in Ukraine, it must take Kyiv.
Taking Kyiv will not be an easy task for the RGF. History shows that smaller forces can and often do prevail in urban terrain. United States Army doctrine calls for its force size to be three times the size of its enemy in most types of terrain. To prevail in an urban environment, a force must be five times the size of its enemy. While the RFG can wager the troops necessary to take Kyiv, it will still struggle to seize the city. Armored vehicles do not operate well in urban terrain due to the variety of obstacles the enemy can use to bog them down. Infantrymen often suffer high numbers of casualties since they must go from building to building to clear them of enemy anti-tank weapons and snipers. Finally, the RFG has found that it will have to deal with hostile Ukrainian civilians. If Ukraine can continue to properly use urban tactics to defend its cities, it will be hard for the RFG to take Kyiv or any other Ukrainian city.
Conclusion
Despite being the underdog, Ukraine still has a fighting chance. A look at Ukraine’s history has shown that Russia has a long track record of exploiting Ukraine. Despite having issues of their own, Ukraine is tired of Russia’s games. Ukraine has a strong President who has not cowered to Putin and his cronies. He has inspired the Ukrainian people to fight for their freedom. The tactical advantage is on Ukraine’s side if they can properly set up their defenses in Kyiv and other cities. These factors add up to one key variable, the will to fight. Ukraine has the will to fight while Russia does not. History shows that the will to fight is often the most important variable in winning any war.
References
Britannica. (n.d.). Volodymyr Zelensky. Retrieved from Britannica: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Volodymyr-Zelensky
Editors, C. R. (2020). Modern Ukraine.
(2020). Joint Publication 5-0 (Joint Planning).
Spencer, J. (2022). The Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender.